Last week was another crazy week of XFL football. One team covered their spread in week four (Houston) and two “upsets” basically stole the show. There was some late buzz on New York to play Los Angeles close and be within the +7 they got last week, had I wrote the column Saturday morning, I probably would’ve changed my pick around, but hand up…I was wrong on it.
In addition last week I hammered the under in every game besides the Texas Throwdown. Only one game went over according to last week’s graphic and it was St. Louis vs Seattle and it was by half of a point.
We’re out for redemption, I’m looking to get the masses back on my side this week with a bunch of winners to get back on the right side of five hundred.
Last Week’s Record 3-5-0
Overall Record 15-17-0
Houston Roughnecks (-13) at home vs Seattle Dragons
I think we’re learning rather quickly that lines of 10+ are way too high to lay. No matter how different these teams are trending from each other. I like Houston a lot, but last week against Dallas when they weren’t getting hat tricks from Cam Phillips they looked much more pedestrian as an offense. PJ Walker is good, and has my money as MVP frontrunner at this point, but I can’t guarantee they win this game by two touchdowns.
Especially given the impact B.J. Daniels had for the Dragons’ offense last week when he came in the game. And at this point in the week, Jim Zorn has yet to name a starting quarterback. But seriously, after watching Daniels’ impact in 30 minutes how could you not start him in a game against the best team in the league.
I’m reluctantly going to put my eggs in the basket of Jim Zorn not being completely incompetent and starting Daniels and he’ll make some noise and score some points.
My Pick: Dragons +13 and Over 45.5
Dallas Renegades (-8) at home against the New York Guardians
Another game, another strange line. Dallas is without Landry Jones while he deals with his reaggravated MCL injury. Last week, Phillip Nelson came on in relief and didn’t play terribly, but definitely doesn’t have the juice to win a game big in this league.
My advice, walk, don’t run to your sportsbook of choice.
I think the Guardians were the surprise of last weekend. Luis Perez looked very good. He made the throws he had too and was constantly putting drives in scoring range. I like his chances of a repeat performance. That being said, Matt McGloin is back from his Thorax injury and practicing all week, so yet another QB controversy on our hands. Hopefully Perez goes on Saturday because I like him against a limping Renegades team with eight points of cushion.
My Pick: Guardians +8 and Under 37
DC Defenders +3.5 at home against the St. Louis BattleHawks
We’re three for three on odd lines this week. Could two teams be moving in more different directions? St. Louis is playing out of its mind, and DC hasn’t found the end zone twice in the past two weeks. And bookmakers think DC can play within a touchdown? There has to be some factors we don’t know yet about this game. Perhaps a big time running back is out with injury for St. Louis. Either way I think Jordan Ta’Amu is the second best QB in this league right now. And I think he can win this game by more than the -3.5 DC is getting. Go for it.
My Pick: BattleHawks (-3.5) and Under 39
Los Angeles Wildcats (-1.5) at home against the Tampa Bay Vipers
What is the number one thing we have learned this year in the XFL?
Team’s don’t travel across the country well. Don’t overthink this.
Tampa is putting it all together, and they got Quinton Flowers back. Will he be an asset or a distraction? He’s publicly requested a trade and admittedly stepped away from the team because of his lack of play time. That’s the kind of little league nonsense that shouldn’t work in professional football. You’ll see that last line again, soon. (I have a TB Column in the works).
The Wildcats looked great at home before they traveled to New York last week and lost to the Guardians. Now that they’re back home, I expect them to get back on track. They could be getting Nelson Spruce back, but that is still up in the air. And while I want to take a team that is coming off of a 25-point shutout and getting a point and a half Sunday, I just don’t think I can.
My Pick: Wildcats (-1.5) and Over 40
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