We’re now exactly half way through the XFL season. So it’s a really good time to deep dive into some of the numbers we have compiled this season betting on games, and take a look at the stats I’m keeping personally to help me pick games on a weekly basis. What good is a betting column if you don’t actually help the people who read it?
Week five was the column’s best week of the year so far, 6-2 including two games where we picked the spread and total together. I think a lot of that comes with the league figuring itself out, partnered with some big spreads and mysteriously low overs. Last week, besides LA the teams that were getting points hit. I said that Seattle getting 13 points after making a QB change that will automatically boost the offense was a no-brainer of a bet. Even if it was against the best team in the league in Houston. The same thing went for New York, who was getting 8 points against a Dallas team whose OC broke his leg and was transition to coaching from up in the booth, AND lost their starting quarterback. We identified the storylines that could swing those games and we hit on them. Good for us.
In week six there are some questions about line, but we can discuss them when we break them down later on. Lets take a look at some of the gambling stats on the season so far. Including team record against the spread, totals by week (wk. 1, wk. 2, etc.) and the team’s total points in each game (which helps with offensive trends).
XFL Betting By The Numbers
Defenders: 3-2 ATS
O/U: U, U, O, U, U
PTS: 31, 27, 9, 0, 15
Roughnecks: 3-2 ATS
O/U: O, O, O, U, O
Roughnecks PTS: 37, 28, 34, 27, 32
Dragons: 3-2 ATS
O/U: U, U, U, O, O
Dragons PTS: 19, 17, 12, 23
Wildcats: 2-3 ATS
O/U: O, U, O U, O
Wildcats PTS: 17, 18, 39, 14, 41
Guardians: 3-2 ATS
O/U: U, U, U, U, O
Guardians PTS: 23, 0, 9, 17, 30
Vipers: 1-4 ATS
O/U: U, U, O, U, O
Vipers PTS: 3, 9, 27, 25, 34
BattleHawks: 3-2 ATS
O/U: U, O, U, O, U
BattleHawks PTS: 15, 24, 29, 23, 6
Renegades: 2-3 ATS
O/U: U, U, U, U, O
Renegades PTS: 9, 25, 24, 20, 12
Hopefully those stats help you out. Feel free to copy and paste them if you keep notes, and you can always follow me on Twitter where I keep up with gambling and live lines and so on, for even more XFL content.
Okay, on to the picks!
LAST WEEK’S RECORD: 6-2-0
OVERALL RECORD: 21-19-0
The fact that we still haven’t had a push this year is fascinating. Now that I say that watch me rack them up this weekend.
New York Guardians +6.5 at home against the Houston Roughnecks
This game will be confusing to bet, that’s my only guarantee. For some reason, Houston is far and away the best team in the league, and there is almost no discussion to be had after the egg St. Louis laid last week. But New York at home is a different football team. And as far as matchups go, the Guardians’ secondary has looked as good as any other unit in the league. So I think they could stifle the Cam Phillips show, and possibly hold P.J. Walker to a human performance. But at the end of the day, I’m going to see that the best offense in the league is going up against an offense working through a quarterback controversy and take the 6.5 points.
My Pick: Roughnecks -6.5 and the Under at 47
Tampa Bay Vipers +3 at home against the St. Louis BattleHawks
Tampa has really put things together over the last couple of weeks, they have fully revamped their offense and are scoring points at a high rate. On the other hand, last week St. Louis looked like a team that got really comfortable playing at home in the dome in front of 25k fans. They traveled to DC and were stagnant on offense, putting up just six points in week five. I think Tampa will be a more friendly environment for Jordan Ta’Amu’s offense, so I think the scoring will bounce back a fair bit. In reality, the BattleHawks offense has looked more reliant on Ta’Amu than at the beginning of the season, and until they can re-balance their offense my head is telling me that Tampa is the play.
But my heart has the final say…
My Pick: BattleHawks -3 and the Over at 42
DC Defenders -4.5 at home against the Dallas Renegades
This game received the lowest total of the XFL season so far (35 points). And for some reason, I instantly convinced myself that the under is a lock. DC seemingly made a quarterback last week giving the keys to Tyree Jackson over Cardale Jones. And Dallas is still without Landry Jones, so Phillip Nelson will be under center for the second consecutive week. Last week the Defenders won by scoring just 15 points, and the Renegades offense looked terrible, but they still managed 12 points against New York. In reality, I think the Defenders can score more points than last week, but I’m not sure if the Renegades have it in them. But I don’t think DC has more than three TD’s and a couple of field goals in them. So as far as bets go, this one feels like a pretty safe one.
My Pick: Defenders -4.5 and the Under at 35
Seattle Dragons +2.5 at home against the Los Angeles Wildcats
I liked B.J. Daniels last week. I think he added a lot to the Dragons offense that felt really stale the last couple of weeks before the QB change was made. And the Wildcats have a great offense that could be getting Nelson Spruce at any point. The Wildcats defense is also very good at giving up scores. So I think this game will be an entertaining points fest, no matter how heavily it is effected by the Corona virus scare in the US. I think an empty stadium helps the Wildcats that much more, and could really make for an entertaining braodcast on television. We shall see.
My Pick: Wildcats -2.5 and the Over at 45.5
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