This was sent to us by Paul, a fan and frequent contributor to our XFL Week In Review podcast. We thought he made so many good points. We thought we would bring them to you.
Take it away, Paul;
Love the show. I have a theory about when the 2021 season will start, and I’d love to hear your comments. I’ve been a ticket broker selling sports and concert tickets for 20 years, so I have a good understanding of how the time of year affects demand for ticket sales and TV viewership.
I feel the season will NOT be starting the weekend after February 13th. Instead, it will likely begin between April 10th and May 1st and end sometime between July 3rd and July 18th. If this works, it could be a permanent change from 2022 on.
April 10th is the weekend after the Final Four, and since the 2021 Olympics starts on July 23rd, a 12 game XFL season needs to starts before May 1st to not compete against the Olympics.
Here are my reasons for this hypothesis. They are in no particular order.
- An XFL reality show would likely involve player recruitment, tryouts, the XFL Draft, and training camp if the XFL had a 2021 schedule similar to 2020. All this content would need to be recorded and air during the NFL regular season, playoffs, and the College Bowl season. I don’t think casual viewers would be interested in an XFL reality show in December and January during the heart of the NFL and college season.
- An April start would give people more time to get vaccines, plus flu season will be over. Perceived COVID safety will trail actual COVID safety. It’s not going to be like flicking on a light switch. Folks watching packed March Madness at big indoor stadiums will give them even more confidence to attend outdoor events.
- The XFL cannot be selling season tickets if they are unsure about stadium capacity restrictions. Thus, having a few extra months to ensure the stadiums can be full is a requirement. All consumer-facing companies need to capitalize on the holiday season. It’s an irreplaceable time of the year. Folks might be reluctant to buy tickets in Nov-Dec for February 2021 events but will be more confident about April events.
- March Madness is a buzzsaw for all sports. Starting in March or late February would hurt the critical momentum the XFL needs. Besides, many folks will legally gamble online for the first time during 2021 March Madness, so starting after will keep those new gamblers active.
- The NBA and NHL Playoffs will likely start later in 2021, so the XFL will have more time in April and May to not compete with this high demand sports viewership and attendance.
- Not only will having extra time ensure a higher quality launch, but it also provides more flexibility for the Rocks schedule. He’s so critical for getting this off and running, and I’m sure has lots of time restrictions.
- Warmer weather will help attendance for all current cities, specifically in NY, DC, and Seatle. Yes, hardcore fans will brave the cold but families with kids are much less likely to do so. The XFL NEEDS to follow the big tobacco marketing model of getting kids hooked.
It’s the only major football league that families of all socioeconomic backgrounds can afford. There are kids who beg their parents to take them to an NFL game, but they can’t afford it. The XFL needs to capture that market.
- 2020 College Football Underclassman will be able to join XFL 2021 since the XFL draft would be after the Bowl season. Not only will this be great for player quality, but having them in the reality show would be awesome.
- In the long run, if the XFL wants to expand, they need to have teams in big markets located in cold-weather areas of the county that don’t have indoor stadiums. Some examples include Chicago, Philly, Boston, Oakland, Denver, Portland, & Columbus.
At the moment, the only cold weather major markets that have indoor stadiums are Detroit, Minneapolis, and Indianapolis. In my opinion, Detroit would likely be the only city that would be considered for potential expansion. Cold-weather cities just don’t have as many non-sports-related things to do. You got to get them on board in the long run.
- A later start will mean more of the season will be when kids aren’t in school. If you look at MLB attendance, it picks up like crazy once schools are out. Even MLB pennant races in September, attendance is poor due to school nights. Again, Kids, Kids, Kids.
- Many casual sports fans need a football break. Current XFL fans don’t need them, but they need folks to go through a withdrawal period if they want to grow.
Concluding, these are my theories as to when the season will start. I hope this is the reason we’ve had radio silence by the new owners. However, they need to make announcements in the next few weeks and have a sales staff and new Merch available for the holiday shopping season.
What do you think of Paul’s hypothesis? Let us know in the comments.
You can listen to the segment where we talk about Paul’s take from the XFL Week In Review Podcast.
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