We all know the saying everyone loves an underdog. Well, the same goes in NFL betting even though betting on the underdog can be a dicey situation. I mean, as an underdog, perceived by the oddsmakers at betting sites, that team is supposed to lose. However, the sites even the playing field, so to speak, by having a spread for the game where the underdog gets points and the favourite is giving them. In this article we will break down the best time to take the risk by betting on the underdog.
First Things First
If you plan on taking the underdog, or the favourite, for that matter you need to do a little homework in handicapping the game. When you handicap a game you can get some information on how a team may perform. For example, if a team is an underdog but has a good run game while the opposing team does not have a good run defence they may be a good bet.
A few things you need to look at are:
- Home and away records
- Key injuries
- Weather
- Team motivation
- Team form
- Offensive and defensive matchups
- How a team has fared against the opponent in the past (this is especially important for games between division rivals)
The Short Dog
One of the best times to take the underdog is when a team is a short one meaning they are getting 3 points or less. This is especially the case if a team is a short road underdog on the road, as they may be the better team but the home field advantage is taken into consideration. If a team is a short dog the oddsmakers think the game will be a close one and anything can happen in the NFL. If a team is a short underdog they are not only seen as a good team to cover but a decent bet to get the win as well. While you are not getting many points taking the short dog you will get some, so you will likely cover in a close game and, obviously cover, if they get the win.
The Moneyline on the Short Dog
This is to the point above, as if you decide to bet on a short dog it may be a good idea to take the moneyline. Ok, so if you take the moneyline you are not getting any points, but in what oddsmakers see as a close game with a short spread you will get a better payout if you use the moneyline. If you think a team that is a short underdog will win then it is always a good idea to use the moneyline. Check out a betting calculator to see the better payout you will get when taking a team that is a slight underdog.
The Big Dog
While there are advantages when betting on the short dog the same goes for being a big underdog as well. Unlike college football coaches in the NFL do not like to run up the score on their opponent. In the college game it can be advantageous to do that with the importance of the rankings. However, in the NFL a win is a win and in the standings it does not matter if a team wins by three points or 23 points. Often, when a team is up big at the half they will take their foot off the gas in the second half. Because of this the big underdog can come back to, at least, cover the spread.
When a team is a big underdog they may have more motivation and be pumped to play a better team. Conversely, a big favourite may not be as motivated playing a team they should beat handily. For example, take a look at the San Francisco 49ers in the 2023 season. They were 14-6 and lost to the Kansas City Chiefs in overtime in the Super Bowl. However, they were only 9-11 against the spread (ATS).
Set Your Own Odds
If you pinpoint a game where you want to take the underdog and you think the sportsbook should be giving them more points then you can use betting exchanges to get better odds. The best betting exchange sites will allow you to set the spread for a game. There is not a guarantee that someone will match the bet but it increases the chances of doing so if you put more favourable odds.
Wait It Out
If you plan on taking an underdog one of the better betting tips is to wait until close to the game to make the bet. The reason is the public loves to bet on the favourite. The sportsbook wants as close to even money bet on every game, so they will make a better profit. If the public is betting more on the favourite that book will try to have more people bet on the underdog and because of that they will increase the spread to make that dog a more attractive pick. So it is likely that the underdog will get more points the closer to the start of the game. Also, you can use a free oddsmatcher to check out different books to get the best odds possible.
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