This was sent to us by Paul, a fan and frequent contributor to our XFL Week In Review podcast. We thought he made so many good points. We thought we would bring them to you.
Take it away, Paul;
Love the show. I have a theory about when the 2021 season will start, and I’d love to hear your comments. I’ve been a ticket broker selling sports and concert tickets for 20 years, so I have a good understanding of how the time of year affects demand for ticket sales and TV viewership.
I feel the season will NOT be starting the weekend after February 13th. Instead, it will likely begin between April 10th and May 1st and end sometime between July 3rd and July 18th. If this works, it could be a permanent change from 2022 on.
April 10th is the weekend after the Final Four, and since the 2021 Olympics starts on July 23rd, a 12 game XFL season needs to starts before May 1st to not compete against the Olympics.
Here are my reasons for this hypothesis. They are in no particular order.
An XFL reality show would likely involve player recruitment, tryouts, the XFL Draft, and training camp if the XFL had a 2021 schedule similar to 2020. All this content would need to be recorded and air during the NFL regular season, playoffs, and the College Bowl season. I don’t think casual viewers would be interested in an XFL reality show in December and January during the heart of the NFL and college season.
An April start would give people more time to get vaccines, plus flu season will be over. Perceived COVID safety will trail actual COVID safety. It’s not going to be like flicking on a light switch. Folks watching packed March Madness at big indoor stadiums will give them even more confidence to attend outdoor events.
The XFL cannot be selling season tickets if they are unsure about stadium capacity restrictions. Thus, having a few extra months to ensure the stadiums can be full is a requirement. All consumer-facing companies need to capitalize on the holiday season. It’s an irreplaceable time of the year. Folks might be reluctant to buy tickets in Nov-Dec for February 2021 events but will be more confident about April events.
March Madness is a buzzsaw for all sports. Starting in March or late February would hurt the critical momentum the XFL needs. Besides, many folks will legally gamble online for the first time during 2021 March Madness, so starting after will keep those new gamblers active.
The NBA and NHL Playoffs will likely start later in 2021, so the XFL will have more time in April and May to not compete with this high demand sports viewership and attendance.
Not only will having extra time ensure a higher quality launch, but it also provides more flexibility for the Rocks schedule. He’s so critical for getting this off and running, and I’m sure has lots of time restrictions.
Warmer weather will help attendance for all current cities, specifically in NY, DC, and Seatle. Yes, hardcore fans will brave the cold but families with kids are much less likely to do so. The XFL NEEDS to follow the big tobacco marketing model of getting kids hooked.
It’s the only major football league that families of all socioeconomic backgrounds can afford. There are kids who beg their parents to take them to an NFL game, but they can’t afford it. The XFL needs to capture that market.
2020 College Football Underclassman will be able to join XFL 2021 since the XFL draft would be after the Bowl season. Not only will this be great for player quality, but having them in the reality show would be awesome.
In the long run, if the XFL wants to expand, they need to have teams in big markets located in cold-weather areas of the county that don’t have indoor stadiums. Some examples include Chicago, Philly, Boston, Oakland, Denver, Portland, & Columbus.
At the moment, the only cold weather major markets that have indoor stadiums are Detroit, Minneapolis, and Indianapolis. In my opinion, Detroit would likely be the only city that would be considered for potential expansion. Cold-weather cities just don’t have as many non-sports-related things to do. You got to get them on board in the long run.
A later start will mean more of the season will be when kids aren’t in school. If you look at MLB attendance, it picks up like crazy once schools are out. Even MLB pennant races in September, attendance is poor due to school nights. Again, Kids, Kids, Kids.
Many casual sports fans need a football break. Current XFL fans don’t need them, but they need folks to go through a withdrawal period if they want to grow.
Concluding, these are my theories as to when the season will start. I hope this is the reason we’ve had radio silence by the new owners. However, they need to make announcements in the next few weeks and have a sales staff and new Merch available for the holiday shopping season.
What do you think of Paul’s hypothesis? Let us know in the comments.
You can listen to the segment where we talk about Paul’s take from the XFL Week In Review Podcast.
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7 Comments
7 Comments
Gregory Crawford
October 1, 2020 at 2:47 am
I like it for the most part. Starting later in the spring would also prove beneficial for teams in the southern United States. February and March can be somewhat problematic as those are the peak months for tornadic activity in this region. A mid-spring to mid-summer league also has the added advantage of much, much, more merchandise and concessions sales, ( no heavy coats, hats, and scarfs ). I think most fans prefer lighter attire at sporting events. Also playing later in the year allows for more late evening and night games for primetime tv. In closing I hope whatever the powers that be decide, they commit to the long term success of the league. This from a Birmingham Iron Fan ” FORGE ON”
Great points. From the marketing side of business.
Currently there are 8 teams in the XFL league. For strategic marketing and regional alliances, it will be great if the league can add four more teams for a total of twelve. I know a few investors that will like to buy into the league. That means 6 home games per team. Three of the homes games can be played in other lucrative city as attraction for neighboring cities. Bring the game much closer to home…reality coming to a neighboring city near you. More local market tie-in promotions and group sales.
But why Spring 2022? Why not Spring 2021? I mean, look at NFL. They’ve played behind closed doors and the spectators were allowed to be in some of the stadiums with their face masks on. So, why doesn’t the XFL do the same thing?
David – because the NFL makes far more of its money from TV money, rather than depending on the gate. So they can get away with it. The XFL lives off of its gate – so it needs fans in attendance. Plus, to grow the brand, you need live fans.
As regards to expansion, I would consider adding 2 teams for 2022. But they need to be in non-NFL cities. I know the XFL was steering clear of the AAF, but I would definitely think about non-NFL cities. San Diego seems like an obvious target. Oakland I would avoid because they share a baseball stadium. Salt Lake might work in an April – July schedule. San Antonio is another obvious target although they have 2 Texas teams as it is. Orlando makes sense (move the Vipers?).
I’d actually like to see four teams added relatively quickly (although 2022 may be too early). I do think that the Wildcats should move to San Diego and the Vipers should move to Orlando. San Diego State is building a new stadium though, which will be great for 2023 (about 35K seating) but I’m not sure what they’d do for 2022, as SDCCU may be gone before then.
IMO, Stanford University’s stadium might be a good option for the bay area. I’d personally like to see a team in Hartford, CT (I live in New England). I also think Louisville and Raleigh might be worth considering. San Antonio is very deserving too, although three Texas teams would irk a lot of people, IMO.
“warmer weather will help attendance for all current cities” …. Well, it won’t really help for Houston, or LA, or Dallas, or Tampa Bay. That’s half of the current cities. In fact, playing games outdoors in Texas in June would probably be much worse for fans and players (potential 100 degree days). FWIW, I do think a later start in the year could be better, but not THAT much later.
Given the way March Madness works, there’s only one weekend that’s really super jammed up — the first tourney weekend. The XFL could generally work around NCAA games for weekends #2 and #3 during the tournament.
Having the postseason in June/July may actually end up conflicting more with future NBA playoffs, as they’re seriously considering shifting their schedule to begin two months later (to conflict less with NCAA/NFL football).
I do agree that having a short break after the NFL season is probably a good idea, and potentially having more college players join up is also a good thing.
A lot of the other stuff is rendered moot by the decision to not start until 2022, so I won’t address those.
Gregory Crawford
October 1, 2020 at 2:47 am
I like it for the most part. Starting later in the spring would also prove beneficial for teams in the southern United States. February and March can be somewhat problematic as those are the peak months for tornadic activity in this region. A mid-spring to mid-summer league also has the added advantage of much, much, more merchandise and concessions sales, ( no heavy coats, hats, and scarfs ). I think most fans prefer lighter attire at sporting events. Also playing later in the year allows for more late evening and night games for primetime tv. In closing I hope whatever the powers that be decide, they commit to the long term success of the league. This from a Birmingham Iron Fan ” FORGE ON”
Bene Ben
October 1, 2020 at 10:52 am
Great points. From the marketing side of business.
Currently there are 8 teams in the XFL league. For strategic marketing and regional alliances, it will be great if the league can add four more teams for a total of twelve. I know a few investors that will like to buy into the league. That means 6 home games per team. Three of the homes games can be played in other lucrative city as attraction for neighboring cities. Bring the game much closer to home…reality coming to a neighboring city near you. More local market tie-in promotions and group sales.
David
October 1, 2020 at 11:44 am
But why Spring 2022? Why not Spring 2021? I mean, look at NFL. They’ve played behind closed doors and the spectators were allowed to be in some of the stadiums with their face masks on. So, why doesn’t the XFL do the same thing?
John Romanelli
October 2, 2020 at 3:54 pm
David – because the NFL makes far more of its money from TV money, rather than depending on the gate. So they can get away with it. The XFL lives off of its gate – so it needs fans in attendance. Plus, to grow the brand, you need live fans.
As regards to expansion, I would consider adding 2 teams for 2022. But they need to be in non-NFL cities. I know the XFL was steering clear of the AAF, but I would definitely think about non-NFL cities. San Diego seems like an obvious target. Oakland I would avoid because they share a baseball stadium. Salt Lake might work in an April – July schedule. San Antonio is another obvious target although they have 2 Texas teams as it is. Orlando makes sense (move the Vipers?).
Chip
October 5, 2020 at 10:30 am
I’d actually like to see four teams added relatively quickly (although 2022 may be too early). I do think that the Wildcats should move to San Diego and the Vipers should move to Orlando. San Diego State is building a new stadium though, which will be great for 2023 (about 35K seating) but I’m not sure what they’d do for 2022, as SDCCU may be gone before then.
IMO, Stanford University’s stadium might be a good option for the bay area. I’d personally like to see a team in Hartford, CT (I live in New England). I also think Louisville and Raleigh might be worth considering. San Antonio is very deserving too, although three Texas teams would irk a lot of people, IMO.
Chip
October 5, 2020 at 10:26 am
Some things seem to make sense. Others do not.
“warmer weather will help attendance for all current cities” …. Well, it won’t really help for Houston, or LA, or Dallas, or Tampa Bay. That’s half of the current cities. In fact, playing games outdoors in Texas in June would probably be much worse for fans and players (potential 100 degree days). FWIW, I do think a later start in the year could be better, but not THAT much later.
Given the way March Madness works, there’s only one weekend that’s really super jammed up — the first tourney weekend. The XFL could generally work around NCAA games for weekends #2 and #3 during the tournament.
Having the postseason in June/July may actually end up conflicting more with future NBA playoffs, as they’re seriously considering shifting their schedule to begin two months later (to conflict less with NCAA/NFL football).
I do agree that having a short break after the NFL season is probably a good idea, and potentially having more college players join up is also a good thing.
A lot of the other stuff is rendered moot by the decision to not start until 2022, so I won’t address those.
brian okiec
December 12, 2020 at 8:52 am
I like the idea of starting later, but with this timeline you will be playing when the CFL is playing.